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How can we make better decisions?
Preparedness and Patience
"The future is uncertain. Correlations can change. The analysis is thinking about scenarios and risks and not getting false confidence from the past." – Simon Pilcher Whilst the act of making an investment is much celebrated in investment management, two qualities emerge in the conversations with CIOs, to help improve the precision and effectiveness of action - preparedness and patience. Information is no longer scarce. The constant flurry of updates on slow moving situations
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The CIO role in an AI world
“I don’t know who the winners will be and quite possibly the winners might not even exist yet.” - Richard Tomlinson Chat about AI is everywhere. Not joking, but I recently went to a meditation seminar called “Staying Grounded in an AI world”. This topic is rightly getting plenty of attention in investing too. In a field as dynamic as AI and investing, conclusions quickly become stale, so please tell me where you disagree. On the CIO Chair podcast, where Sean Thompson and I in
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Citizens' Assemblies
"Our constitution is called a democracy because power is in the hands not of a minority but of the whole people." - Pericles When we hear the word 'democracy', we think of electing representatives who are affiliated to a political party. Yet for much of history it has not been that way. The concept of democracy is to hold governments accountable to the people. People are in favour of that, but politicians and parties are not held in similarly high regard. [Chart of popularit
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When we have robots
The end of labour is to gain leisure.” Commonly attributed to Aristotle Whilst my recent blogs have been about decision-making, politics and different ways of thinking about things, this topic has come up so often in conversations with three different sets of friends that I felt I had to explore it with you all. Here is the scenario. It is 2030 and someone has finally produced a multi-functional household robot. It is more capable than a robotic vacuum cleaner and not restric
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Opposite tribes same playbook
“Opposites are complementary.” - Niels Bohr In investing as in life, labels are useful in small measure but potentially fatal if abused. Many labels are no more than marketing slogans, or some are pejoratives designed to diminish the other side. More importantly, labels are simplifications. They create neat black and white categories whereas reality is messy and full of grey. Investing examples will always come first for me. There is no magic line between "defensive" and "gro
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The heroes we choose
“The best thing I did was to choose the right heroes.”- Warren Buffett Asia trip reflections I had three vivid experiences while travelling this summer. All three made me think about heroes: who we celebrate, what we celebrate them for and what those choices say about us. The first was at the Forbidden City in Beijing, which is built on a scale of grandeur unlike anything I had seen before. Our tour guide told us something so striking that I checked it with her twice and then
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Half-time commentary
"How do we stay in the room and hear things that are difficult? How do we make sure the parameters around conversation are ones that are open to conversations?" - Rabbi Charley Baginsky Apparently as you get older time speeds. I have felt the exact opposite so far this year and it seems from conversations with friends and family that I’m not the only one. When I remember to, just before summer holidays and / or at Christmas I tend to review what has happened. This has include
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1929, storytelling and investments
"There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance." — J.K. Galbraith A recent podcast guest (The CIO Chair) guest suggested reading "The Great Crash 1929" by John Kenneth Galbraith. This is a finance classic written in 1955 and chronicles the actors and actions of the Wall Street Crash. It is hard not to see the parallels with the exuberance we are living through. This week's blog is about the stories we tell ourselve
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Feeling, then reason
"Reason is and ought only to be the slave of the passions." — David Hume When I started writing about decision-making 163 blogs ago, I started from the perspective that we reach our views through a mostly “rational” process. We gather evidence then weigh it, apply challenge to it, and only then conclude. Emotions were a fly in the ointment that we should acknowledge and weigh. I no longer believe it is done that way, or for most decisions, especially for contentious, high s
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Fundamental disagreement
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H. L. Mencken We are now near enough 10 years post the Brexit referendum. Brexit was a rare act of direct democracy and its intention to solve, once and for all the "European question" in hindsight has ended up creating more polarisation and not helped stem the loss of trust in political institutions. I remember the day vividly. Nigel Farage, based on early polling suggesting a narrow
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The bill of responsibilities
We venerate the Magna Carta and the rights enshrined by the US Constitution, but rarely do we consider what they rest on. When smaller groups of people acted as tribes or villages, the rules were made clear by constant enforcement but also within a framework of expectations on people i.e. responsibilities. As villages have grown into mega-cities and governments influence the lives of people from a great distance, we have become fluent in rights but less fluent in responsibili
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What's happening in PE?
Much of the recent focus has been on private credit, but the more consequential developments may be unfolding in private equity. The latest Bain Global Private Equity Report provides a great overview of how the PE system is faring as a whole. (Global Private Equity Report 2026 | Bain & Company). Across podcast conversations on The CIO Chair (The CIO Chair), a recurring theme has been the role of private markets in institutional portfolios. Global pension funds now represent o
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Society and the state
“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” - George Bernard Shaw We spend way too much time talking about the state or governments just because they are big and noisy. The types of questions we ask are: what it should provide us in need? What it should invest in? What it should stop or regulate? The state really does matter and has been invested strong powers but the state is not the whole country. I think our relentless focus on the state forgets society.
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Is the system rigged?
“If a man knows not to which port he sails, no wind is favorable” – Seneca The deep state “The deep state” or the “The blob” are both colourful descriptions of a deep network of well positioned people with an agenda. This cabal can sway governments no matter what happens at the polling booth. At first this seems like conspiratorial claptrap, the ramblings of those who have spent too much time talking about UFOs or vaccines, but their arguments are appealing. Before dismissi
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The uncertainty trap
“I honestly believe it is better to know nothing than to know what ain’t so.” - Josh Billings Uncertainty is a fact of life . It permeates every part of our existence and cannot be avoided. We face uncertain health, business prospects and ups and downs in our environment. Today’s blog is about what uncertainty does to us, why we sometimes end up with bad outcomes under uncertainty and what practical steps we can take to reduce its negative impacts. Comfort with uncertainty
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Building winning investment teams
“The function of leadership is to produce more leaders, not more followers.” — Ralph Nader One of the most important lessons from the CIO Chair podcasts is appreciating just how much of the decision‑making is done before a CIO signs off on anything. Our interviewees emphasised that doing their role involved shaping systems. There does not appear to be a one-size-fits-all playbook. Each institution serves different stakeholders, and has different investment aims, liability str
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Valuable traits in an AI world
“Technology is a useful servant but a dangerous master.” - Christian Lous Lange Each technological shift produces two predictable reactions. Fairy-tale forecasts and fear. The fairy-tale is that AI will do everything for us and when combined with robots will make humans able to enjoy leisure with a guaranteed income stream. The fear is for a world where we are physically and mentally redundant and we are so useless that we will be unable to find meaningful roles. I am going
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Why CIOs Access Private Markets
“Private credit: Smoke, yes, but how much fire?” - Jim Reid The current torrent of headlines around the lack of exits in Private Equity and Software/redemption risks in Private Credit might make it feel like Asset Owners have been caught up in Illiquid asset marketing hype. That misses the point about the role of Private markets in a long-term portfolio. Background Through the conversations I have had with CIOs from the UK and US alongside my co-host Sean Thompson, the su
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CIO career tips for early careers
" Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards ." — Søren Kierkegaard Graduates and their families are currently navigating the competitive environment for graduate jobs. According to the numbers I have seen in the UK and the US, the ratios of graduates to jobs is currently higher than normal and the environment has weakened over the last 3 years. If you are facing this situation, this blog is for you. I've had the enormous privilege with my co-host S
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More straight talking please
“Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.” — George Orwell If there is one reason (and if you are an investor, I hope there will be more than one) to listen to the CIO Chair podcasts, it is to hear credible people straight talking. There is irony that straight talking is a 'selling point', but it was an insight to me, that those who make big decisions speak more precisely than those
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5 CIO insights from 5 podcasts
“The reality is I'm an investor. My job really is about looking after the team that's delivering investment advice and investment management to the pension fund. People, investments, long-term strategy, engaging with the client and keeping the show on the road. Making sure that we're a well run business that will keep the FCA happy as well as our members.” - Simon Pilcher Well here it is. Five great episodes; one more left in this series, and some great guests shaping up for
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Why I love podcasts
Podcasts are like Marmite. If you mention the word to someone, either their eyes glaze over and they try to fake an urgent call, or you see Disneyland-like excitement. I am firmly in the latter category. Whilst they remain free (for now), I believe that podcasts are an incredible and accessible way to hear some of the best summaries and more fringe opinions out there. The formats are so broad. They can range from under to ten minutes to over three hours and are not subject t
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2025 in 5 themes
“The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it.” — Henry David Thoreau What a year 2025 was! I wish all of you a wise 2026. I am one of those people who has an annual process of reflection. For me, it is an opportunity to think and set some directions I am truly excited about. This year for example I would like to drink my tea without any honey and finally sort out my hedges. Another part of reflection is trying to think through the year that’s just gone
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The Tightrope of Neutrality
We all think we’re neutral. Seeing things objectively. It's always someone else who takes the extreme view or is biased, impractical or even worse corrupt. Whilst in politics the circus continues, what about in a more objective world like investing? What is neutrality? In investment land it usually means: I’m laying out what we know without forcing a conclusion – yet. In a noisy world, that is a virtue, but in reality we get rewarded for acting on good judgment. How do we bal
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The positive case for balancing the books
“We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.”― Jean-Claude Juncker Zoso Davies, a credit strategist and Hartej Singh, a Credit Investor write a four-part series arguing that balancing the books should be the UK government’s number one priority. With living standards, immigration, climate change, and choppier geopolitical waters dominating national discourse, this may seem blinkered. We firmly disagree. In our view, the very ability
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Infoslop
“Attention is the rarest and purest form of generosity.” — Simone Weil I think Infoslop has a lot to answer for. I'm not sure if I have invented the word, but I will try and define it and explain why I think why Infoslop makes us less well-informed yet more confident in our (faulty, or at least non-nuanced beliefs). I am taking measures to try and avoid infoslop in my life, but its a journey - I would love to hear from you, how you have successfully achieved this. To add insu
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Britain balancing its books part 3
The moral case — betraying our values? Zoso Davies, a credit strategist and Hartej Singh, a Credit Investor write a four-part series...
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Britain balancing its books part 2
More promises than productivity Zoso Davies, a credit strategist and Hartej Singh, a Credit Investor write a four-part series arguing...
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The Overton Window
“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” — attributed to Mahatma Gandhi You might not have...
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Britain balancing its books part 1
Britain balancing its books part 1: Sound public finances underpin living standards, discuss Zoso Davies, a credit strategist and Hartej...
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Summer book recommendation
“It is easier to judge a man by his questions rather than his answers” - Pierre-Marc-Gaston I hope you are having a great summer! This is...
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The lost art of patience and curiosity
"Dripping water wears through stone, but not in a single day." – Chinese Proverb Before heading off on holiday, I stuffed five slim books...
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How we can avoid going broke
“In any case, the days of borrowing much more than can be paid back to support excess consumption, by unproductive people, are coming to...
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The 5 Powers of a storyteller
“Think like a wise man but communicate in the language of the people.” - William Butler Yeats, Irish poet Storytellers command power. A...
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Vision - the story of tomorrow
"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the colour of their skin but...
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Humour - spice for stories
“If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you.” — George Bernard Shaw Making people laugh is not...
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Stories that lift us
“Stories are the communal currency of humanity.” – Tahir Shah Stories can lift us Welcome to part five of the storytelling series, with...
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Data-driven storytelling
"The goal is to turn data into information, and information into insight." – Carly Fiorina Data is the start of the story not the story...
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The power of narratives
“The narrative is the set of assumptions the press believes in, possibly without even knowing that it believes in them". - from Stephen...
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Stories simplify ideas
“ After nourishment, shelter and companionship, stories are the thing we need most in the world .” -- Philip Pullman A famous and...
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Learn how to tell stories
“Humans think in stories rather than in facts, numbers, or equations, and the simpler the story, the better.” — Yuval Noah Harari Is the...
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Assumption Sages
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” - Unknown (often attributed to...
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Tech trade-offs
'It was the best of times; it was the worst of times' - Charles Dickens I hesitated before writing this. Who am I to generalise, to...
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Luxury beliefs
“People care a great deal more about appearance and reputation than about reality.” - Jonathan Haidt , The Righteous Mind Are beliefs the...
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Death by process
“Bureaucracy is the death of all sound work.” - Albert Einstein Where to go next? It feels in the day that Amazon can get a product to...
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The Blame Game
Blaming others is a common response to not feeling happy Too good to be true usually means too good to be true." – Richard Branson We...
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Book: Rockefeller Letters
This is the book cover This week, I have not been able to spend as much time writing as I would have liked to, and that is largely...
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Laws are tools not truths
"Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future." - Robert Kennedy The...
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80/20 rule and life decisions
“The successful warrior is the average man, with laser-like focus.” – Bruce Lee Outsize outputs come from a small group in inputs. If...
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2025 Focus and 2024 Review
"Focus is the art of knowing what to ignore" - James Clear What to focus on this year? Dear readers thank you for joining me in this...
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