Too good to be true usually means too good to be true." – Richard Branson
We humans credit ourselves with successes and blame failures on others. This is called self-serving bias and is one of the most reliable and well-documented findings in psychology.
Today's blog, explains how populists are exploiting fear and self serving bias to create policies that i) distract us, ii) tear us apart and iii) leave us in a worse state to take the actual hard decisions we could have taken earlier if we hadn't allowed ourselves to be fooled.
Importantly this is not just a "far right" thing. Whether getting rid of our nuclear weapons, capping rents or increasing our population through immigration without providing for extra housing the left wing populists have had their fair share of Disneyland policies too.
Why I am writing this blog?
A voter has a tough time these days. Traditional parties seem intent on excusing decline rather than getting us out of the rut. This leaves acres of space for new parties of the left and right to tell us, our current malaise has a simple "fix". In our heart of hearts, we all know that populist parties are taking us for a ride, but we want their message to be true - they tell us it is not our fault. They tell us our frustration can be solved by getting rid of the baddies.
What populism preys upon
The flavours are quite reliable over time and location. On the left, it favours justice and anti-corruption and on the right, cultural identity and removing 'outsiders'.
Most populist parties rely on simple themes:
It is not solving anything
Populism is like junk food, a fleeting moment of pleasure, followed by a long tail of regret. We need an easy "why" to our feelings of threat and anxiety, directing our anger and resentment towards something we feel we can control.
Populism winds us up about those baddies that are taking our stuff. We can't eat because of someone else. The solution is simple they confidently say - "We will get our stuff back".
Whether we can rationalise it or not, this is so tempting. It fills us with righteous indignance. It allows us to keep our story in tact that we are wonderful but being unfairly taken advantage of. It allows us to identify a quick, painless (for us) fix. This is the political equivalent of slimming pills.
We have seen this recently with the AfD, a populist party in Germany. They have performed very strongly recently in the German elections and the second highest vote share. They have performed well in the former East Germany with "re-migration" i.e. the return of Syrian migrants to their country of birth.
But, did the immigrants mainly go to East Germany? No. Syrian immigrants largely went to West Germany and Berlin due to the better economic opportunities. So to take this to its logical conclusion, if the AfD enacted their policies successfully, those folks in East Germany who voted for them would not be much better off. In the same way that socialism is said to run out of other people's money, populism runs out of people to blame.
We see this with many populist movements. In Brexit less economically active parts of the population with lower immigration rates were more likely to vote to leave the EU than those communities like London and Manchester where many Eastern Europeans actually lived.
When we look for scapegoats, like, the EU, DEI, the rich, the elites, the woke mob, the fascists, the hillbillies etc we have to ask ourselves, is this really the root of the problem?
Why is populism a problem?
1) It is distracting: It's stops us looking for the root causes. These quick fixes will make us worse off.
2) It is polarising: It directs blame to some and absolves others. That creates a hostile atmosphere that pits us on opposing sides within the same country. Good vs bad, realists vs idealists, woke squad vs fascists, elites vs deep state. The list goes on.
3) When the harsh realities of policy starts coming into view, we realise it for what it is - a hoax. That leaves us even less trusting of politicians and further away from making the hard decisions.
How to Counter This – Root Causes
The hard work is facing up to reality and looking inwards. What is the root of the problem we are trying to solve? Today's challenges are stagnant economies, high debt, low birth rates, and strained public services and defence. Might the best solutions be to boost productivity, reduce government dependence, and invest in the long term? Why are such policies so rare?
History Doesn’t Repeat, but It Rhymes
Comparisons to the 1930s are often overused, but the similarities are striking:
Economic turmoil fuels populism, with inflation and stagnation breeding discontent.
A feeling of crime rising and being physically unsafe.
People feel poorer but struggle to pinpoint why—wages lag behind rising costs of food, rent, and energy.
Governments evade accountability, leaving populists to redirect frustration onto migrants or foreign powers.
With little being done, institutional trust erodes and leaves people searching for answers elsewhere.
How can we rise above the blame game?
Seek root causes – Complex problems rarely have a single culprit. Be sceptical of easy answers.
Demand details – Slogans lack substance. Ask: How will this work? What makes you confident this is a good idea?
Weigh Long-Term Costs – Quick fixes tend to fail. Real solutions demand difficult but necessary compromises.
Spot Narrative Shifts – try and pick out the scapegoating so that it does not seep into sensible conversation.
Blame is the world’s oldest addiction, we need to keep it at bay more than ever.
So what?
Blame is a natural response - self-serving bias credits success to us but failure to "them".
Voters are frustrated and looking for easy fixes – Traditional parties avoid tackling decline, leaving space for populists who offer emotional appeal over real solutions.
Populists exploit this bias but it comes at a very high cost: distraction, division and quack cures – Left-wing populism emphasizes justice and anti-corruption, while right-wing populism focuses on cultural identity and excluding outsiders.
The real issues require difficult solutions – Instead of blame, societies should focus on boosting productivity, reducing government dependence, and making long-term investments.
Avoiding the blame game requires vigilance – Question narratives, demand policy details, and think long-term rather than falling for easy scapegoats.
Next week I will be discussing "Good process but bad outcome". Until then, please sign up to receive the blog directly to your email at Blog | Deciders.
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