Is the system rigged?

“If a man knows not to which port he sails, no wind is favorable” – Seneca

The deep state

“The deep state” or the “The blob” are both colourful descriptions of a deep network of well positioned people with an agenda. This cabal can sway governments no matter what happens at the polling booth.

At first this seems like conspiratorial claptrap, the ramblings of those who have spent too much time talking about UFOs or vaccines, but their arguments are appealing. Before dismissing them as cranks, it might be more valuable to better understand why it feels more rigged than just incompetence and how we fix it.

Each political pole has its baddies. The right wing speak of a woke cabal prioritising minority rights and mass immigration and left wing cabal speak of smoke-filled rooms of tax-avoiding big business, prioritising profit and conducting wars over the good of the people and environment. Whichever baddy you choose, you feel like your standard of living is reducing outside of the very wealthiest.

Common complaints of a “rigged” system

There are five common arguments for where the system is rigged:

1. Representational: the public can vote, but their votes seem to count for little by skewed voting systems that favour established parties. This is true for the first-past-the-post system in particular, where a party with a 20% share of the vote could end up with no representatives.

2. Distributive: Some countries, groups, assets or promises are protected much more firmly than others. For example students in the UK need to pay for their entire fees with a debt system that rolls up at the inflation rate + 3%, yet pensioners (growing in number) have an even-better-than inflation protected state pension.

3. Measurement: The official picture is much rosier than what it feels like people are living through. We are told that crime is approximately static but hear a lot more about shoplifting. We are also told that our earnings are keeping up with inflation but there are new and expensive items that modern life cannot do without like mobile phone bills and the internet.

4. Civic: the shared infrastructure like roads, healthcare (waiting lists continue to be large) and schools decay through underinvestment. When people face private below-inflation pay rises, year-long waiting list for basic health procedures and see potholes on the road they feel less positive than the story they are told. The hollowing out of public infrastructure has also led to new “stealth taxes” like parking charges on the high street and higher public transport costs.

5. Cultural: People feel minority issues are given inappropriate sway over the majority like the celebration of minority festivals, diversity hiring and hushing up of human rights violations abroad. This dovetails with the decay of local social systems like churches, voluntary associations, kids playing on the streets and the local pub.

This disconnect is showing up in a lot of places. In the left-wing or right-wing media or the manosphere or protesting in the streets. For example, London saw some of the largest marches since the Iraq war protests. Unite the Kingdom promoting the celebration of the British National character and solidarity with the Palestinians being the two largest types. These groups and others speak of a searing injustice that is staining national life or conscience.

A lack of agency

My friend and superb data guru James Kanagasooriam has in my opinion hit the nail on the head. (Agency could be the next big idea - by James Kanagasooriam)

He believes there is a growing feeling of a lack of “agency”.  He defines agency as a feeling of control over your life.

For example, if you feel like your vote is ignored and your hard work results in a lower and lower standard of living, you feel you have very little control over your life. This squeeze is made to feel even worse when special interests have their money protected for example the state pension, foreign wars and welfare benefits for those who have not paid into the system.

The Brexit experience, did much to make both sides of it look anti-democratic. When the UK asked its people if they wanted to be a part of the European Union and benefit from more control of the national purse and reduced immigration they first of all got 3 years of in-fighting without implementing the verdict and then a series of arrangements which made doing business more difficult which was nothing like the promises made prior to the vote.

In the US when people voted for a leader to “drain the swamp”, return to traditional values and put America first, opinion now is that they got a leader who is profiting from his position more than any of his predecessors, is plagued by his association with a convicted paedophile and has spent enormous amounts of US money and goodwill starting and dealing with the repercussions of another unforced Middle Eastern campaign.

9% replied yes for politicians "generally trust them to the truth, or not"

In each case, people continue to feel poorer, feel even more desperate for “change” but continually get let down by their choices.

We can’t handle the truth

Many commentators portray those who feel the ‘system is rigged’ as dim-witted. Patronisingly, they see those loud voices as having been whipped up by social media or some uncritical far right or far left campaign. I disagree.

Firstly, we must acknowledge that well organised, well-funded and highly motivated groups do actually get outcomes that seem unfair. Whether it is access to politicians, geopolitical sway, regulation or taxation there are some highly irregular parts of our system that cannot be explained away.

But can we blame everything on that?

• How do we explain five decades of spending more than we earn as a country? (only 5 years of surplus since 1971)

• The disconnect of a pension system that requires population growth but so few children in the pipeline and an increasing aversion to immigration? (ONS fertility at a record low)

• How do we explain the very little progress made on expanding our national infrastructure or housing stock?

• How do we explain that so few British people want to do caring jobs? (111,000 vacancies in 2025)

• How do we explain protected spending for so many different groups? (triple lock pensions)

I believe our system is not rigged. But, it is rudderless.

We are seemingly gullible to the claims of politicians that we can have public services of Norway with the tax rates of Dubai and the demographics of Japan. We believe that when the rest of the world is upskilling and competing globally on producing goods and services, we should be focusing on shorter working weeks. We get surprised each time our energy bills go up without investing in our energy infrastructure. Rudderless systems produce reams not roads. No amount of consultation can get away from trade-offs.

As with many things, the solution is simple but not easy. A national agenda with a clear small set of priorities and short-term sacrifices is essential to create forward progress.

So is the system rigged?

Yes and No, mostly no in my opinion. It is easier for the organised, the protected and the well-funded to get what they want than for the disparate unheard. But that is not the deepest failure. The deepest failure is that we have built political systems that struggle to create coherent long-term action.

The perception of a rigged system breeds rage but that is not as bad as a rudderless one. Once people stop believing that anything meaningful can be fixed by a choice on the ballot, they lose faith in the whole bargain of democratic life.

Next week, will be "A bill of responsibilities". As always get the blog delivered directly to your inbox on Home | Deciders | for mental fitness | change your mind.