“I honestly believe it is better to know nothing than to know what ain’t so.” - Josh Billings Uncertainty is a fact of life . It permeates every part of our existence and cannot be avoided. We face uncertain health, business prospects and ups and downs in our environment. Today’s blog is about what uncertainty does to us, why we sometimes end up with bad outcomes under uncertainty and what practical steps we can take to reduce its negative impacts. Comfort with uncertainty

“Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.” — George Orwell If there is one reason (and if you are an investor, I hope there will be more than one) to listen to the CIO Chair podcasts, it is to hear credible people straight talking. There is irony that straight talking is a 'selling point', but it was an insight to me, that those who make big decisions speak more precisely than those

“The reality is I'm an investor. My job really is about looking after the team that's delivering investment advice and investment management to the pension fund. People, investments, long-term strategy, engaging with the client and keeping the show on the road. Making sure that we're a well run business that will keep the FCA happy as well as our members.” - Simon Pilcher Well here it is. Five great episodes; one more left in this series, and some great guests shaping up for

“The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it.” — Henry David Thoreau What a year 2025 was! I wish all of you a wise 2026. I am one of those people who has an annual process of reflection. For me, it is an opportunity to think and set some directions I am truly excited about. This year for example I would like to drink my tea without any honey and finally sort out my hedges. Another part of reflection is trying to think through the year that’s just gone

We all think we’re neutral. Seeing things objectively. It's always someone else who takes the extreme view or is biased, impractical or even worse corrupt. Whilst in politics the circus continues, what about in a more objective world like investing? What is neutrality? In investment land it usually means: I’m laying out what we know without forcing a conclusion – yet. In a noisy world, that is a virtue, but in reality we get rewarded for acting on good judgment. How do we bal

“Attention is the rarest and purest form of generosity.” — Simone Weil I think Infoslop has a lot to answer for. I'm not sure if I have invented the word, but I will try and define it and explain why I think why Infoslop makes us less well-informed yet more confident in our (faulty, or at least non-nuanced beliefs). I am taking measures to try and avoid infoslop in my life, but its a journey - I would love to hear from you, how you have successfully achieved this. To add insu

“Think like a wise man but communicate in the language of the people.” - William Butler Yeats, Irish poet Storytellers command power. A...

"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the colour of their skin but...

"The goal is to turn data into information, and information into insight." – Carly Fiorina Data is the start of the story not the story...

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” - Unknown (often attributed to...

'It was the best of times; it was the worst of times' - Charles Dickens I hesitated before writing this. Who am I to generalise, to...

“People care a great deal more about appearance and reputation than about reality.” - Jonathan Haidt , The Righteous Mind Are beliefs the...

“Bureaucracy is the death of all sound work.” - Albert Einstein Where to go next? It feels in the day that Amazon can get a product to...

“The successful warrior is the average man, with laser-like focus.” – Bruce Lee Outsize outputs come from a small group in inputs. If...

"Focus is the art of knowing what to ignore" - James Clear What to focus on this year? Dear readers thank you for joining me in this...

It's time to have a grown up conversation around free speech... What's the real story of free speech today? Free speech was back in the...

"The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence—it is to act with yesterday's logic." - Peter Drucker If someone had...

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." – Lao Tzu My biology teacher used to joke, "A pessimist is a man...

"The plural of anecdote is misinformation" - Dr. Jonathan Stea Did a policy work? Voters are in the mood for radical policies. Radical...

"Narratives are the primary way in which we make sense of our lives" - Jacqui Stedmon What are narratives? In most situations there is...