“I honestly believe it is better to know nothing than to know what ain’t so.” - Josh Billings   Uncertainty is a fact of life .  It permeates every part of our existence and cannot be avoided. We face uncertain health, business prospects and ups and downs in our environment. Today’s blog is about what uncertainty does to us, why we sometimes end up with bad outcomes under uncertainty and what practical steps we can take to reduce its negative impacts. Comfort with uncertainty

“The function of leadership is to produce more leaders, not more followers.” — Ralph Nader One of the most important lessons from the CIO Chair podcasts is appreciating just how much of the decision‑making is done before a CIO signs off on anything. Our interviewees emphasised that doing their role involved shaping systems. There does not appear to be a one-size-fits-all playbook. Each institution serves different stakeholders, and has different investment aims, liability str

“Technology is a useful servant but a dangerous master.”  - Christian Lous Lange Each technological shift produces two predictable reactions. Fairy-tale forecasts and fear. The fairy-tale is that AI will do everything for us and when combined with robots will make humans able to enjoy leisure with a guaranteed income stream. The fear is for a world where we are physically and mentally redundant and we are so useless that we will be unable to find meaningful roles. I am going

“Private credit: Smoke, yes, but how much fire?”  - Jim Reid The current torrent of headlines around the lack of exits in Private Equity and Software/redemption risks in Private Credit might make it feel like Asset Owners have been caught up in Illiquid asset marketing hype. That misses the point about the role of Private markets in a long-term portfolio. Background Through the conversations I have had with CIOs from the UK and US alongside my co-host Sean Thompson, the su

" Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards ." — Søren Kierkegaard Graduates and their families are currently navigating the competitive environment for graduate jobs. According to the numbers I have seen in the UK and the US, the ratios of graduates to jobs is currently higher than normal and the environment has weakened over the last 3 years. If you are facing this situation, this blog is for you. I've had the enormous privilege with my co-host S

“Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.” — George Orwell If there is one reason (and if you are an investor, I hope there will be more than one) to listen to the CIO Chair podcasts, it is to hear credible people straight talking. There is irony that straight talking is a 'selling point', but it was an insight to me, that those who make big decisions speak more precisely than those

“The reality is I'm an investor. My job really is about looking after the team that's delivering investment advice and investment management to the pension fund. People, investments, long-term strategy, engaging with the client and keeping the show on the road. Making sure that we're a well run business that will keep the FCA happy as well as our members.” - Simon Pilcher Well here it is. Five great episodes; one more left in this series, and some great guests shaping up for

Podcasts are like Marmite. If you mention the word to someone, either their eyes glaze over and they try to fake an urgent call, or you see Disneyland-like excitement. I am firmly in the latter category. Whilst they remain free (for now), I believe that podcasts are an incredible and accessible way to hear some of the best summaries and more fringe opinions out there. The formats are so broad. They can range from under to ten minutes to over three hours and are not subject t

“The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it.”  — Henry David Thoreau What a year 2025 was! I wish all of you a wise 2026. I am one of those people who has an annual process of reflection. For me, it is an opportunity to think and set some directions I am truly excited about. This year for example I would like to drink my tea without any honey and finally sort out my hedges.   Another part of reflection is trying to think through the year that’s just gone

We all think we’re neutral. Seeing things objectively. It's always someone else who takes the extreme view or is biased, impractical or even worse corrupt. Whilst in politics the circus continues, what about in a more objective world like investing? What is neutrality? In investment land it usually means: I’m laying out what we know without forcing a conclusion – yet. In a noisy world, that is a virtue, but in reality we get rewarded for acting on good judgment. How do we bal

“We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.”― Jean-Claude Juncker   Zoso Davies, a credit strategist and Hartej Singh, a Credit Investor write a four-part series arguing that balancing the books should be the UK government’s number one priority. With living standards, immigration, climate change, and choppier geopolitical waters dominating national discourse, this may seem blinkered. We firmly disagree. In our view, the very ability

“Attention is the rarest and purest form of generosity.” — Simone Weil I think Infoslop has a lot to answer for. I'm not sure if I have invented the word, but I will try and define it and explain why I think why Infoslop makes us less well-informed yet more confident in our (faulty, or at least non-nuanced beliefs). I am taking measures to try and avoid infoslop in my life, but its a journey - I would love to hear from you, how you have successfully achieved this. To add insu

The moral case — betraying our values? Zoso Davies, a credit strategist and Hartej Singh, a Credit Investor write a four-part series...

More promises than productivity Zoso Davies, a credit strategist and Hartej Singh, a Credit Investor write a four-part series arguing...

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” — attributed to Mahatma Gandhi You might not have...

Britain balancing its books part 1: Sound public finances underpin living standards, discuss Zoso Davies, a credit strategist and Hartej...

“It is easier to judge a man by his questions rather than his answers” - Pierre-Marc-Gaston I hope you are having a great summer! This is...

"Dripping water wears through stone, but not in a single day." – Chinese Proverb Before heading off on holiday, I stuffed five slim books...

“In any case, the days of borrowing much more than can be paid back to support excess consumption, by unproductive people, are coming to...

“Think like a wise man but communicate in the language of the people.” - William Butler Yeats, Irish poet Storytellers command power. A...

"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the colour of their skin but...

“If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you.” — George Bernard Shaw Making people laugh is not...

“Stories are the communal currency of humanity.” – Tahir Shah Stories can lift us Welcome to part five of the storytelling series, with...

"The goal is to turn data into information, and information into insight." – Carly Fiorina Data is the start of the story not the story...