Conference season
The future of Britain is wide open. With three parties close in the voting intention polls and a very tight Left/Right split 46% to the Right (Con+Reform+Restore) and 50% to the left (Lab+Lib Dem+Green+SNP) the competition for ideas is alive and well.
Party conference season is noisy. Had you been relying on clickbait, the two divisive debates came from the Green Party, “Is Zionism Racism?”, and “Englishness” debate from Reform.
I have tried a different approach to conference season: zone out of the noise and look at what I think of as Britain's “Big Six Questions”. How do we:
Balance the books?
Generate growth?
Manage immigration?
Provide affordable and secure energy?
Build houses and infrastructure?
Defend ourselves?
They are obviously not the only things that matter. But collectively they tell us quite a lot about the choices Britain faces.
What did we actually learn?
Reform went first, deliberately organising its conference around "The First 100 Days". The key planks were 1) improving education 2) cutting energy bills 3) stopping the boats and 4) cutting taxes. Reform also proposed fast-tracking development on previously used land, while stripping away many of the costs and affordable-housing obligations.
The Liberal Democrats were next producing: “an explicit programme for growth”. Daisy Cooper’s prospectus combined 1) closer European economic ties, 2) infrastructure, investment and 3) skills. Ed Davey argued that closer co-operation with Europe could generate faster growth and eventually create room for income-tax cuts.
Labour's conference offered a much more interventionist agenda. Prime Minister Burnham announced a National Care Service, partly financed through reform of the pension triple lock from 2030, alongside greater public involvement in housing, water and energy.
The Greens concentrated particularly on affordability. Zack Polanski’s principal announcement was a three-year brake on private rent increases, limiting them to the lowest of inflation, wage growth or 2%, followed by a longer-term Fair Rents Guarantee. His broader argument was: "Tax the very richest. Bring our public services back into public hands."
The Conservatives produced perhaps the broadest programme. 1) £71 billion savings plan allocates half the stated savings to deficit reduction 2) defence spending of 3% and a "Britannia Shield" 4) halving employer National Insurance for 21-to-24-year-olds and 5) pledged to abolish inheritance tax on the family home. Underneath it was Kemi Badenoch’s The Right Way, whose first principle is: "Wealth must be created before it can be distributed."
The SNP went last and is finishing tomorrow. Its conference is different because the constitutional question runs through almost everything else. The party's own conference agenda explicitly accepts that persuadable voters want answers on "the economy, their pensions, their mortgages, their household security, currency, and the public finances". Energy was prominent this year with John Swinney arguing that Scotland's renewable potential is being constrained by insufficient grid connections.
A hard look at the big six
What they have in common
Whilst the differences generate more excitement, there is much in common beneath the ideological differences.
Economic Growth: Recognition that to balance the books and be able to provide public services or tax cuts growth is desperately needed
Housing: Each party has its own solution but the direction of travel is the same, more building.
Energy policy is not economically viable with remarkably little defence of the current situation.
The big conclusion from conference season is that something substantial needs to change. How that change comes about is the dividing line.
The dividing lines - predictable
The role of the state: Whilst both Labour and the Greens point towards greater state capacity and public involvement. Conservatives and Reform argue for a narrower set of state functions with greater effectiveness.
The EU question: Prime Minster Burnham has reopened this debate where Labour’s narrative is that Brexit has not produced the results it had sought to. The Liberal Democrats increasingly see renewed European integration as part of the economic solution. The SNP goes further: its conference is explicitly debating a path from independence to EU membership. The Conservatives and Reform see this as reopening a can of worms.
Energy policy: Labour, the Greens and SNP see the energy transition as an opportunity for greater investment in renewables and infrastructure, alongside a larger role for government. Conservatives and Reform put much greater emphasis on the cost of energy, arguing that green levies, carbon taxes and regulation have contributed to high bills. Reform goes furthest, proposing to scrap net-zero policies and carbon taxes on gas generation
So what?
If we zone out of the noise, the message is surprisingly clear. Britain’s parties increasingly agree on the problems
growth is too weak
we do not build enough
energy is too expensive
the public finances are precarious
How we achieve that is up for grabs. More state or less? Regulation or deregulation? Europe or greater national autonomy? Accelerate the energy transition or reduce its costs?
Next week's blog will be "Intuition revisited". As always get the blog delivered directly to your inbox on Home | Deciders | for mental fitness | change your mind.
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